Does Steele Have a Chance?

Chris Cillizza writes an inane post on Michael Steele's chances in November:

Judging from the numbers alone, Cardin's victory is less-than-convincing. He beat Mfume by approximately 13,000 votes while outspending the former congressman by at least $3 million.

The potentially bigger problem for Cardin is whether the results of the primary create a divide between the Democratic nominee and the black vote. The primary between Cardin and Mfume was not at all contentious (the two men have known each other for years), and even though Mfume took three days to concede the race, he spoke glowingly of Cardin when he did, calling him a "great public servant."

Those kind words were overshadowed somewhat by a controversy within Cardin's campaign. A staffer was fired late last week after it was revealed that she made controversial racial remarks on a personal blog.

The timing of the firing couldn't be any worse for Cardin: The nominee wants to make clear to black voters, who comprise 28 percent of the state's population, that he -- not Steele -- will best represent their interests in the Senate. While the issue of race was barely mentioned in the primary, Republicans were quick to note that the only two black Democrats in contested primaries (Mfume and Stuart Simms, who was seeking the nomination in the attorney general's race) were both defeated by white men.

Republicans also circulated a recent quote from Rep. Al Wynn (D-Md.) in which he was asked by the Maryland Gazette what he thought the impact on the African American electorate would be if Mfume and Simms were defeated. Wynn, who is black, replied: "It's a scenario that I don't even want to talk about. 'I wouldn't want to speculate on what such a negative scenario it would be for the party."

It remains to be seen how the blog flap and comments like Wynn's will play out in the coming weeks. In the meantime, Steele is wasting no time in appealing to black voters.

He has already run an ad featuring hip hop mogul Russell Simmons endorsing him, and his campaign has made clear he believes this traditionally Democratic bloc of voters is up for grabs. (A Democratic National Committee memo made public this spring argued that Steele had real potential to win a sizeable portion of Maryland's black vote.)

Steve Gilliard sets him straight:

The real indicators here is the Wynn-Edwards race, which is still relying on absentee ballots to determine the winner.

Now, if black voters were willing to turn Wynn into the street for Edwards, why would they vote for Steele? Who not only is more right wing that Wynn, but is closely aligned to the White House and racist contributors.

[snip]

The one issue which will ruin any chance of Steele getting widespread black support is Iraq. Ned Lamont got a sizeable percent of the black vote in Connecticut because of Iraq. Cardin will get that same level of support because of the war in Iraq. That's the biggest issue in the black community and opposition is widespread. As long as Steele supports the war, his ability to get black votes is limited.

Exactly. Cillizza may be wowed by Steele's ads -- Hell, even I'm wowed by them -- but they can't disguise Steele's conservatism, or his basic weaknesses as a candidate. Indeed, I would say his most effective advertisement was his failed attempts to distance himself from President Bush. It may not have been his intention, but it was certainly accurate.

UPDATE: Nice also to see Al Wynn reinforcing GOP talking points. I hope the vote count goes well today (not for him, at least).

Tags: maryland md-sen michael steele republicans ben cardin democrats race