Urban, Suburban, Exurban

I highly recommend this Post article from yesterday on the political implications of suburban and exurban growth in the D.C. area. Development in northern Virginia, in particular, has wrought dramatic changes:

Lang and other demographers believe that density is destiny: Large lots and single-family houses contain Republicans, high-rises and townhouses teem with Democrats. When Fairfax's population topped 1 million, its move to the Democratic column in presidential years was certain, demographers argue.

"Fairfax is just too urbanized to be anything other than reliably Democratic," Lang said.

In Maryland, however, the situation is more mixed: Charles County is becoming more Democratic, thanks to African-Americans migrating from Prince George's, but other outer-ring counties like Calvert, Anne Arundel, and Frederick are seeing an entrenchment, if not growth, of Republicans. Why is this? I don't think it's because the Democrats have "moved far to the left," as one GOP official claims in the article -- though to be fair, the state party could do more to compete in exurban counties. On the other hand, the growth of military employees in Anne Arundel and Frederick probably has something to do with it, if we assume that they are more conservative than the population at large.

One thing to consider, and I may be wrong on this, is that the Virginia suburbs and exurbs have been developing for a longer time than the Maryland suburbs and exurbs, and thus are now maturing into the liberal hubs that the article describes. Of course, this assumes that, as quoted above, density is destiny as far as political affiliation goes. It certainly sounds true that density is more congenial to liberal politics than sparseness, but one has to ask whether that's because of self-selection (i.e., liberals choose cities, conservatives choose suburbs) or because urban life somehow shapes the way you think about the world. If you're a hardcore materialist, I guess, the latter will be a more appealing reason.

Incidentally, the New Politics Institute published a report a while back on how Democrats can compete in exurban areas. It's a good read.