MD-Gov: Who's Ahead?

The question of which is right -- Sunday's Post poll, which showed Martin O'Malley beating Bob Ehrlich by 10%, or today's Sun poll, showing a virtual tie -- seems to turn on how big one thinks turnout among African-Americans will be next Tuesday. Phyllis Jordan of Maryland Moment explains:

The Sun said its poll is based on a model predicting black turnout will be about 19 percent. The Post did not use a model to predict turnout, but set up questions to screen who is likely to vote Nov. 7. About 25 percent of the 1,003 respondents in the Post poll who screened as likely voters were African American.

By comparison, African Americans comprised 24 percent of Maryland's turnout in the 2004 presidential election, 22 percent in the 2002 governor's election and 21 percent in the 1998 governor's race, according to exit polls.

I might have been too optimistic in my earlier post about O'Malley's prospects, but I still think Ehrlich has the harder hill to climb; even in the Sun poll, O'Malley does better in Ehrlich strongholds like Baltimore County than Kathleen Kennedy Townsend did four years ago. And given the general anti-Republican, anti-incumbent mood, Ehrlich has his work cut out for him in the next few days.

So whither African-Americans? I think the Post's interpretation of likely turnout sounds more accurate to me, given the historical trends, but there's still a number of variables in play. Unexpected events like Wayne Curry and other Prince George's politicians endorsing Steele, which I'll comment abut later, could throw all our expectations out the window.