WaPo Poll: O'Malley, Cardin Ahead

With about a week left to go, the Republicans don't seem to be getting much momentum:

MD-Gov: 10/26 (6/25); MoE +/- 3%; 1,003 LV

Ehrlich (R): 45% (39%)
O'Malley (D): 55% (55%)

MD-Sen: 10/26 (6/25); MoE +/- 3%; 1,003 LV

Steele (R): 43% (40%)
Cardin (D): 54% (52%)
Zeese (G): 1% (--)

The pool of undecided voters seems to have mostly dried up, and both Steele and Ehrlich are hitting the ceiling on their potential support. Simply put, there aren't enough Republicans in Maryland; and unlike in 2002, the moderates aren't breaking for the GOP and the Democrats have put up some decent candidates. That said, it's troubling that the poll finds more enthusiasm among Ehrlich/Steele voters than O'Malley/Cardin voters.

The internals for this poll are rather interesting. Steele's only winning characteristic is his personality (what a surprise!), and about a third of those polled see their vote for Senator as a vote against President Bush. With Ehrlich and O'Malley, the results tend to be more mixed, with a few notable exceptions: O'Malley wins on public education and working with the General Assembly -- compared to Ehrlich, just about anyone would -- while his most appealing characteristics are his vision and his empathy. Lots of people have remarked on O'Malley's Clintonesque demeanor, and this seems to confirm it.

It also appears Ehrlich's anti-Baltimore attack ads haven't had much of an effect: a slight plurality say Baltimore under O'Malley is getting better, unchanged since the last poll in June.

As for the effect of last week's Purple Line incident or Cardin's skipping of the NAACP debate in Charles County on the Senate race, it remains to be seen, since they occurred just as the poll ended. But it doesn't seem likely, given these numbers, that they will give Steele much, if any, room to maneuver.