New Rasmussen Poll

Via dKos, a new poll for the gubernatorial and Senate races:

MD-Gov: 8/19 (7/10); MoE +/- 3%

Ehrlich (R): 43% (42%)
O'Malley (D): 50% (49%)

MD-Sen: 8/19 (no trendlines); MoE +/- 4.5%

Cardin (D): 47%
Steele (R): 42%

Mfume (D): 46%
Steele (R): 44%

The findings line up with most of the other polls, though strangely there was no survey of the Cardin/Mfume primary.

As we get closer to election season, the number of undecideds will continue to drop, as we can see already in the O'Malley/Ehrlich race. It's an open question now whether O'Malley will get solid support from Baltimoreans unhappy with his record as Mayor; likewise, Ehrlich's support among suburbanites in Anne Arundel and Baltimore Counties appears to be shaky, as his selection of Kristen Cox as his running mate attests. We might see some unusual crossovers this November.

Meanwhile, Cardin's lead over Steele is starting to flag, at least when compared to previous polls. It's still bigger than Mfume's lead, but it may be that Cardin's advantages in money and organization aren't translating into as much popular enthusiasm. In the wake of Ned Lamont's victory in Connecticut, the political climate is changing, as we are seeing already in the MD-4 congressional primary, and it might well upset Cardin's projection of inevitability.

Tags: MD-Gov, MD-Sen, Martin O'Malley, Bob Ehrlich, Ben Cardin, Kweisi Mfume, Michael Steele